Western Montana Congressional Race Is in Virtual Dead Heat

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Friday, October 14, 2022

CONTACT
hadley@montanademocrats.org

New polling shows Monica Tranel at 41%, Zinke at 42%, Libertarian John Lamb at 8%

Helena, MT – Recent polling of Montana’s Western Congressional District shows a virtual tie between Republican Ryan Zinke at 42% and Democrat Monica Tranel at 41%. Libertarian John Lamb is polling at 8%, with undecided voters at 11%. 

Here are some takeaways from the new polling:
 

• Ryan Zinke is stunningly vulnerable. Despite national name recognition, an out-of-state fundraising machine oiled by Special Interests, and a Trump endorsement, he is in a virtual tie with a lesser known challenger. 

• Ryan Zinke is underperforming the partisan lean of the district by five points— with a generic Republican up 47% to his 42%. Zinke’s weakness among his own party is shocking. 

• The strength of the Libertarian candidate — John Lamb— is remarkable. Support for the Libertarian party in Montana has historically been well below that. In the 2018 US House Election in Montana, the Libertarian candidate (Elinor Swanson) received only 2.7% in what would be today's Western district. 

• Despite not raising enough money to be required to file an FEC report, Lamb has outperformed his party. Lamb’s popularity is a direct reflection of Zinke’s deep unpopularity. 

• The Western Congressional Race is a toss-up. 

“Montana’s Western Congressional Race may very well be one of the most competitive in the nation. Deeply unpopular among his own party, Ryan Zinke is shockingly vulnerable,” says Sheila Hogan, executive director of the Montana Democratic Party. “I’ll tell you – I wouldn’t want to be Ryan Zinke today. He’s losing support to an insurgent Libertarian candidate and looking weak compared to his powerhouse Democratic opponent Monica Tranel.” 

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