Lee Montana State Bureau: Could Abortion Decide the Montana Senate Race?

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, October 10, 2024

CONTACT
rehm@mtdems.org

Statewide reporting emphasizes reproductive rights as a crucial issue in the Montana Senate race 

Helena, MT – New statewide reporting from the Lee Montana State Bureau is highlighting how reproductive rights are a top issue in the Montana U.S. Senate race. 

Tim Sheehy’s extreme anti-abortion record is under the microscope, especially as Montanans will be voting on a reproductive rights ballot initiative this November. Today’s reporting highlights Sheehy’s repeated attacks on reproductive freedoms – he “label[ed] young women who vote based on abortion ‘indoctrinated,’” “likened the Democratic Party's position on abortion to ‘murder,’” and called abortion “sinful” and “repulsive.”

Read more below:

Missoulian: Could abortion decide the Montana Senate race?
October 10, 2024
By Carly Graf

• In the multimillion dollar battle on the airwaves between Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, abortion is a prevailing message that stands out among the wall-to-wall advertisements that have inundated Montanans for months.
   

• Sheehy, who called abortion “sinful” and “repulsive” at an event last year, has [...] even lobb[ed] the debunked claim that the Democrat endorses abortion up to birth.
   

• And while the daylight between the two is like high noon on the issue of abortion, something beyond the canyon-sized differences in their policies could play a role in determining which man is elected to the U.S. Senate — in turn likely deciding which party holds the majority in the chamber.
   

• This election, Montanans will weigh in on Constitutional Initiative 128,which would amend the state Constitution to explicitly protect abortion access up to fetal viability. Passage would safeguard against future courts reversing the legal decision that currently protects abortion through the state’s right to privacy.
   

• Organizers behind the measure say they’re seeing unprecedented energy. In June, they submitted 117,000 signatures to the Secretary of State’s Office in support of putting CI-128 on the ballot.
   

• Montana is one of 10 states with a vote to protect abortion on the ballot this November. They come after an undefeated win streak for such measures in seven states — a mix of Republican- and Democrat-led — in the last two years.
   

• “This is an issue that tends to engage late in terms of the swing voters ... ,” said Celinda Lake, who grew up in Montana and now works as a Democratic Party pollster in Washington, D.C. “ ... It becomes the final criteria when you can’t decide or you’re learning one way, and it could be a deal-breaker.”
   

• That gamble is greatest for Democrats. They hope the issue will drive voter turnout for Tester.
   

• Montana Democrats still appear hopeful CI-128 and reproductive freedom will spur high turnout for Tester.
   

• “Reproductive freedom is a top issue for voters across the state — from Republicans to Democrats to independents,” said Monica Robinson, spokesperson for Montanans for Tester. “Tim Sheehy’s position that politicians should be the ones making health care decisions for women is a key reason Montanans will be voting for Jon Tester in November.”
   

• This year’s election is Montana’s first race for Senate since the Dobbs decision overturned federal abortion protections, putting a new spotlight on reproductive rights. The two men vying for the office have made abortion central to their pitches to voters, intertwining the issue with even their basic biographies.
   

• Big Sandy born-and-bred farmer Tester says he’d rather harvest than play politics in Washington, D.C. [...] Tester unabashedly supports abortion rights.
   

• Abortion has been legal in Montana for decades under a robust constitutional right to privacy. Otherwise similar states electorally have clawed back abortion rights since the fall of Roe. Montana is the only in its immediate vicinity where women can still legally and accessibly seek an abortion, though the state Legislature has tried to curb access. Those attempts have been struck down in court.
   

• Though the state looks beet-red on an electoral map, Montana’s voters are more complicated, animated by a mind-your-own-business streak and rich union legacy.
   

• Although Republicans swept all the statewide tickets in 2020 — Tester was not up for reelection that year — and increased their majority in Helena, abortion has, until somewhat recently, been held up by many Montanans as an example of the common-sense politics the state prides itself on. 
   

• Lake says her polling firm has done research in 13 states about residents’ relationship with their state Constitution, which includes that comprehensive privacy protection. Montanans love theirs the most.
   

• “They have a good sense of it, and that it guarantees basic rights, and the basic right to privacy is one of them,” she says. “What are some of the core values of Montanans? Politicians should not interfere with personal decisions, and you should help your neighbor and mind your own business.”
   

• Tester has made the rounds on national television criticizing Sheehy’s position.
   

• “Here in Montana, we cherish our freedoms. Sheehy would let politicians ban abortion with no exceptions, even in Montana. We must stop Tim Sheehy from taking away women’s reproductive freedom,” one of the ads reads.
   

• Sheehy is endorsed by SBA Pro-Life America, a political advocacy nonprofit whose goal is to end abortion.
   

• Democratic strategists say Sheehy, like other Republicans, will pull the bait-and-switch on abortion, saying one thing while campaigning and doing another once elected. They believe tying the Republican Party to abortion bans can deter split-ticket voters, those who would support CI-128 and Sheehy thinking his position is more moderate than it really is.
   

• That theory gained traction this week when audio from a campaign event last year captured Sheehy labeling young women who vote based on abortion "indoctrinated." In the recordings, made public by Char-Koosta News, a newspaper from the Flathead Indian Reservation, Sheehy likened the Democratic Party's position on abortion to "murder." 
   

• Montana mail-in ballots go out Oct. 11 but rest assured both the frequency and intense rhetoric of the political messaging on abortion will continue all the way through Election Day as campaigns try to secure every last vote, experts say.
   

• “You have some people who may not have made up their mind, and initiatives often convince people when they can go vote on the issue that it does matter,” Lake said. “Yes, there’s a lot of polarization, but there’s a lot of volatility, particularly because you have one candidate who is just not that well-known.”

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